Pro/Rel is Coming to the USL: What does it mean for Sacramento?

Reported by Paul Tenorio and The Athletic, the owners of the USL have voted to adopt the promotion and relegation structure. This would make the USL the first professional soccer entity in the United States to adopt the structure. The aim is to have this in place by 2028. This will coincide with the launch of the USL's new Division 1 league, USL Premier. The owners passed this via a supermajority.

This system would be between the new USL Premier, USL Championship, and USL League One. With the top performing teams from the Championship and League One moving up a tier. And the worst performing teams from Premier and the Championship moving down a tier. Now, the major fear of this system in the American landscape was the drop in earnings. This was a concern for when you moved down a division. But, with a lot of the current budget for these clubs coming from game day revenue and a smaller television deal, in comparison to those in Europe and the MLS, that helped quell some of those concerns. This is in comparison to the MLS and its closed system. There is no movement in or out of the MLS apart from expansions or franchises folding.

There are still a couple of hurdles before we get to implementing promotion and relegation. The biggest one to me is figuring out a way to navigate the USSF's Pro League Standards for a Division 1 league. I'm sure you heard a lot of talk about this recently, but the two most challenging ones of the bunch are 1) all league stadiums must have a minimum seating capacity of 15,000 and 2) 75% of the league's teams must be based in a market with one million population. The downside to this is it would exclude certain teams from reaching the top tier. A team like the Charleston Battery would fail to meet both of those requirements, depending on how the USSF defines the population. The oldest continuously operation soccer club of the United States would not be able to join the top tier. There would need to be waivers granted from the USSF for exceptions like Charleston or a change in the standards entirely.

What could it look like? Just a quick primer of how this could work if you don't follow other leagues. In England it's pretty simple, the bottom three move down and the top two automatically move up, with the third being determined via playoff. Germany does something similar but the playoff only occurs between the third worst team and the third best team. In Argentina, they use a coefficient based off a team's performance over multiple seasons, and the team's with the worst coefficients would move down. I'd expect the USL system to look something similar to the English system. It's a pretty straightforward system and probably the one a lot of American soccer fans are most familiar with.

Ok a lot of talk. But what does all of this mean for Sacramento? Well, if you remember a little bit ago, Sacramento was one of the markets rumored to be targeted for USL Premier. This would mean that come 2028, the Republic potentially playing in the Division 1 of US soccer. The Republic have always had strong attendance numbers and ambition to be among the best in the country. And with the new stadium on the horizon, playing at a higher tier can only look to bolster the team's revenue stream. The USL needed to differentiate their product from the MLS. And the inclusion of promotion and relegation is the surefire way to do that. The Republic have been near the top of the league in most of its years of existence. The only exception would be when they failed to quality for the playoffs in 2021. I'd expect them to still be competing at the top of the system. But, now there would be the added threat and urgency of the drop if they were to experience a downshift in form. 

New stadium, new ownership group, new league, and a vastly different soccer landscape. 2028 surely is shaping up to be a big year for the Republic and for soccer in the US in general. The ripple effect of this week's decision will be felt for years to come by every fan of this sport in this country.